Estacio Valoi and David Matsinhe<\/p>\n
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY<\/p>\n
The conflict in Mozambique\u2019s northern province of Cabo Delgado, which has raged since 2017, is conventionally understood as a jihadist insurgency. This report argues that such a narrow framing is dangerously insufficient. 1 The concept of a \u201cdecivilizing process\u201d is borrowed from Norbert Elias, The Civilising Process, Blackwell, 2000. 2 The concepts of the \u201cglobal colour line\u201d and \u201crisk society\u201d are respectively drawn from W.E.B. Du Bois, The Souls of Black Folk.,A. C. McClurg & Co., 1903; and Ulrich Beck, Risk Society: Towards a New Modernity, Sage Publications, 1992. 3 This analysis of state desintegration draws on Norbert Elias, The Civilising Process, Blackwell, 2000. 4 The concept of the \u201cglobal colour line\u201d is borrowed from W.E.B. Du Bois, The Souls of Black Folk.,A. C. McClurg & Co., 1903. 5 The concept of the \u201crisk society\u201d is borrowed from Ulrich Beck, Risk Society: Towards a New Modernity, Sage Publications, 1992. <\/p>\n
The crisis is more accurately diagnosed as a profound \u201cdecivilisation process\u201d, that is, a process of social breakdown,1 and violent regression of the state driven by a toxic confluence of three systemic failures. The conflict is the product of a fractured state that has failed to secure a legitimate monopoly on violence; a neocolonial extractive economy that deepens historical marginalisation; and a development model that manufactures catastrophic risks with organised irresponsibility.2 <\/p>\n
The primary failure is that of state formation. The Mozambican state never completed the state formation process of establishing a legitimate monopoly over the means of violence and taxation.3 The national army, the For\u00e7as Armadas de Defesa de Mo\u00e7ambique (FADM), is a hollow institution, crippled by decades of political neglect, endemic corruption, and logistical collapse. Its operational incapacity and frequent human rights abuses against the very population it should protect have stripped it of legitimacy, transforming it into just one more predatory actor in a crowded field. A chaotic array of coercive forces has filled this vacuum. <\/p>\n
Secondly, this crisis of the state is built upon a foundation of profound socio-economic injustice, a dynamic best understood as a modern iteration of the \u201cglobal colour line.\u201d4 The multi-billion-dollar Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) projects, led by multinationals such as TotalEnergies, have not alleviated the region\u2019s historical marginalisation but have instead carved a new, more brutal dividing line between a protected, globalised extractive enclave and an impoverished local periphery. This has manifested as a classic \u201cresource curse,\u201d where the promise of immense wealth has only exacerbated inequality and conflict. This has created a fertile ground for radical ideologies that promise an alternative identity and a path to dignity through resistance. Thirdly, the entire catastrophe has been accelerated by the logic of a \u201crisk society.\u201d5<\/p>\n
The decision to pursue mega-projects in a volatile and neglected region unleashed a series of \u201cmanufactured risks\u201d\u2014social displacement, environmental degradation, and intensified conflict\u2014that were systematically downplayed. The subsequent security collapse is a manifestation of \u201corganised irresponsibility,\u201d a system in which both corporate and state actors are structured to evade accountability for the devastating consequences of their decisions. As findings have demonstrated, the potential negative impacts were known beforehand, as per the analyses and assessments presented \u2013 namely in the reports of TotalEnergies itself and of independent entities \u2013 but these were incomplete, failing to conform with TotalEnergies\u2019 obligations regarding due diligence, transparency, environmental and social impacts and human rights.<\/p>\n
6 This is the first part of a two-part series reporting on the counter-terrorism laws and operations\u2019 impact on human rights and democratization in Mozambique. Part I will provide a general analysis of the underlying causes of the conflict with a focus on the socio-economic costs of the war while Part II will provide a deeper analysis on the armed groups and the impact of the laws on key civil and political liberties.<\/p>\n